The insider’s privilege of French citizenship is not a necessary requirement in order to realise that President Nicolas Sarkozy has succeeded in getting more than a few backs up over the course of his presidency. His ever increasing unpopularity was made plain for all to see when the French Socialist party won the majority of seats in the French Senate on Sunday 25th September, granting them more influence in French politics than ever before in modern history. They may have won this comparatively small battle, but will their victory be enough to win the electoral war for the left?

The PS (Parti Socialiste) won enough seats in the upper house to gain a majority, giving them far more say in the passing of future laws, posing a detrimental blow to Sarkozy and any further decisions made by his government. While this result will not directly influence the outcome of the 2012 vote, it is clear that the PS possesses several strong political candidates, including Martine Aubry, pioneer of France’s 35-hour working-week, and the party’s current favourite François Hollande, a reassuring “left-wing austerity figure” whose policies speak reassuringly to the moderate voter in a time of financial crisis, in spite of his lack of experience and unorthodox political background. The party has been characterised by a history of fragmentation since the Revolution, making it difficult to make a good impression on voters. However, a televised debate preceding the open primary election for the PS's presidential candidate seemed to indicate a change in direction towards a more unified and stable representation of left wing interests.

For the first time, Sarkozy’s own party are openly divided against him. While his recent actions concerning the Libyan crisis have redeemed him somewhat on the international stage, it is not enough to appease an electorate, angry about high unemployment and economic crisis. Anti-Sarkozy sentiments are no longer solely expressed by his opponents and an increasing majority of the French electorate alone; now his own party are beginning to realise what a liability he is. It is perhaps this vehement divergence of right-wing opinion that will see Sarkozy ousted from his position at the top rather than the competence of the PS itself.

Despite this rather sceptical assessment,  the fact remains that the future looks bright for socialism in France, with opinion polls pointing strongly towards a victory for the left in the 2012 presidential elections. Whether or not this is a genuine change in French political feeling is up for debate. Despite the high electoral turnout for the first of the Socialists' open primary elections, many of the so called supporters of the PS seem to be lacking in conviction in the party’s abilities as a whole, as well as those of its potential candidates. People appear to be voting based on a desire to cast out Sarkozy and the right from the top spot rather than a strong sense of belief in Socialist policies, or those of any other party for that matter. This pattern of voting is unhappily reminiscent of the British electorate’s tentative yet radical choice to vote Lib Dem following a series of heartening, and it later transpired, empty promises. It would be unsurprising if France fell into the same trap.

There are numerous reasons to believe that the PS are in with a strong chance of winning the 2012, not least due to the repudiation the opposition has come to inspire in the French population and the overwhelming number of voters in the primaries. Yet somewhat pessimistically, an alternative plan of action is practically non-existent for a French electorate desperate for change and forced to cling to the word of a party lacking in both charisma and potency.