As a general rule, brutal military dictatorships have a hard time becoming cuddly, reform-minded democracies. Despite its best attempts at pretence, the South Asian pariah state of Burma is no exception. Strict military rule ended in 2010 with the first general election held in 19 years, although a retired and much-decorated general, Thein Sein, swapped uniform for a suit and now heads the new ‘civilian government’. The election was certainly rigged – roundly castigated by international observers, it was boycotted by the hugely-popular oppositional National League for Democracy, whose landslide victory in 1991 prompted the military coup. There have, however, been signs of hope.

The NLD leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, won the 1991 Nobel Peace Prize one year into house arrest that lasted for 15 years – to international joy, she was released days after the 2010 election. Thein Sein has since met her face-to-face and allowed her back to her party offices.

The government recently engaged in a rare public spat with Beijing, one of its few international allies, after it froze construction of the new China-funded Irawaddy Dam, intended to be the country’s largest hydro-electric project. The ostensible reason - it being “against the will of the people” – is somewhat incredible, and most commentators have cited environmental concerns and Thein Sein’s preference for public self-preservation. The move is, nevertheless, encouraging.

Most commented on, however, has been the decision announced last week to grant amnesty to 6,359 of the many prisoners languishing in its camps and jails. A particular hope has been that the releases will include some of Burma’s estimated 2,100 political prisoners.

There have been some notable releases. Zarganar, a comedian imprisoned in 2008 after criticizing the junta’s response to Cyclone Nargis, which killed 140,000 people, walked free on Wednesday. The ethnic Shan leader Sai Say Htan, in his 70s and reportedly suffering from ill health, was imprisoned in 2005 for refusing to contribute in the drafting of a new constitution, but is now back with his family.

Much of the hope surrounding the releases has evaporated. Most of the 6,359 names on the secret list are thought to be those of petty criminals – their release from an infamously harsh justice and penal system is welcome, but hardly symptomatic of real liberalisation.
Many of the most famous activists and dissidents remain behind bars. Min Ko Naing, the leader of a brutally-suppressed 1988 rebellion, has not been released. The fate of many of the monks whose role in the 2007 protests made the front pages, remains uncertain.

Suspicions of the government’s motives are growing. US and EU sanctions have hobbled the economy for years, but recent suggestions have been made that the release of the 2,100 political prisoners might result in their easing. In a nod to Burma’s resource-rich potential, Thein Sein is responding.

Democratisation has so far been a set-back for the economy - £300m in direct foreign investment between 2009 and 2010 rose to £20bn between 2010 and 2011, increasing the value of the Kyat currency by 20-25 per cent and pulling the plug on export value. The result? The produce of the 70 per cent agricultural economy has flooded local markets, driving prices down and leaving farmers in spiraling debt.
The IMF has been asked to advise, but Burma’s past defaults on public debt bar it from receiving financial aid – although it is doubtful as to whether any would be offered, given its past tendencies to line official pockets and bypass any public good. The Independent reports that just 1.3 per cent of government revenues are spent on public health.
The removal of sanctions, however, would be a step towards bringing Burma in from the cold. Allowed to participate fully in global trade, it is not inconceivable that Burma might some day count among the ‘tigers’.     Neighbouring Thailand and Vietnam are quietly building economic bridges.

First, however, Thein Sein and his government must truly liberalise. The 13,000 refugees living in camps along the Thai border, fleeing from repeated military crackdowns on the Kachin, Karen and Shan ethnic minorities, must be allowed to return in safety. In addition, the accusations that prisoners are used as slave-labour porters and to clear landmines must be dealt with.

The NDP must be re-registered as a political party, and Aung San Suu Kyi must be allowed to campaign and to travel. Making media such as the BBC, the Democratic Voice of Burma and Youtube accessible on Burmese internet is commendable, but the laws making their actual access a crime must be removed from the statute books. Freedom of information and of speech, whether or not it is critical of the government, is vital.

Is all this likely? In the long-run, it is perhaps inevitable – but in the meantime, optimism must be checked. The release of 6,359 prisoners does not a free and fair society make. Rather than cleaning up its act, it appears Burma is merely power-hosing its façade.