HAVING AN over-inflated sense of self belief is beneficial when facing new challenges, researchers from the University of Edinburgh have found.

The findings produced in collaboration with researchers at the University of California, San Diego suggest that over confidence is often a more effective strategy than level headedness in business, sport and even war.

The study, published in the journal Nature, used a mathematical model to predict the probability of success between different levels of confidence. The experiment set two individuals of varying confidences against each other in a competition for resources.

The results concluded that “holding incorrect beliefs about one’s own capability” often yielded optimal results as long as the reward of the conflict seemed worthy of the challenge.

Over confidence is advantageous, the study claims, because “it encourages individuals to claim resources they could not otherwise win if it came to a conflict and it keeps them from walking away from conflicts they would surely win.”

The study also suggests that humans can acquire overconfident qualities through trial and error and imitation and learning.

However, the researchers do warn that over confidence carries a degree of risk and point to the 2008 financial crisis and 2003 Iraq war in which over confident populations contributed to the market bubble and national hubris, to demonstrate this point.

Doctor Dominic Johnson said: “The question now is how to channel human overconfidence so we can exploit its benefits while avoiding occasional disasters.”